o will need to form a coalition, likely with previous partners Independent Greeks (10 seats)
o Syriza is bound to austerity program and committed to implementation - this outcome removes ST risks
o in the prev election, bonds sold off on a Syriza win; on the other hand, now it's a relief to get Syriza elected
· Fed - mkt can deal with good news or bad news, but it hates uncertainty
o Sept 17 meeting gave less clarity than mkts would like
o futures pricing in 51% chance of no hike this year
o 13 "dots" looking for hike this year
o US tsy 2y yield peaked at 80bps, fell to 66-68bps after the Thurs meeting, now back up to 70bps
o Yellen speaking on Thurs - hopefully schedules a press conference for the October mtg, but unlikely
· HY correlates better with eqy mkts than EM mkts
· Credit spreads widening out while eqy mkts are stabilizing/up - are fixed income investors seeing sthg that eqy guys aren't?
· Q3 earning season starts in the next couple of weeks
o historical trend has been for expectations decline to during the course of the previous quarter, earnings beats this declined exp
o ^ this hasn't happened this quarter
· Volkswagen (VLKAY) - admitted that their cars met emissions standards only during tests and not on the road
o diesel sales are halted - this is ~one-quarter of US sales
o potential penalties/fines of billions of dollars
o shares down 20% overnight
· DAX is still up +11bps despite VW
· Alibaba (BABA) - share lockup period on 63% of shares is ending, may lead to ST weakness
· Data flow is focused on the US this week
o M: US existing home sales at 10am
o T: US FHFA house prices
o W: PMI day (China, EZ, US, Japan)
o Th: US durable goods, new home sales
o F: US Q2 GDP 3rd revision, UMich consumer survey
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